Kawhi MVP?

[hitnrun24]

Seems like he isn't really in the convo, but I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a late push for it.

He won't have the counting stats to match up to some of the other guys like Luka or Shai, but at some point ppl will have to use their brains on this.

Luka's team will be a low seed so I think you can disqualify him. Shai will def be in the mix, but if the Clippers finish as the top seed I think it'll be close.

When it comes down to it, Kawhi is just the better player..

Shai, as much as I like him, is a real foul hunter so yes while he will have more ppg bc he goes to the line so much I don't think that makes him more valuable.

If OKC falls to 4th I think you can def make the case for Kawhi. He might get discredited for being on a "super team", but Harden I expect won't be an all star so not sure if that holds up.

Embiid.. I think he gets it if he plays enough games, but this is seeming unlikely at this point. 

Tatum.. Bos is probably the favorite for the best record and his stats are pretty good, but also down a bit from last year. Efficiency isn't as good as Kawhis.

Durant.. Probably too low of a seed and him and Booker seem pretty 1a/1b. 

Jokic.. Def the biggest threat. Numbers will be great. May get an extra push for ppl thinking he was the rightful MVP last year cemented by them winning the NBA finals.

It's also going to come down to seeding here. If Nuggets finish above the Clippers I think Jokic gets the nod, but if Clippers finish 1st then it's one of those where you can argue against the numbers. Kawhi has never won MVP, whereas Jokic has 2 and that could factor in to the narrative too. 

I think we've moved beyond just numbers in the stat era, but I guess we'll see. Rose won the MVP in '11 with inferior numbers to Lebron due to being a 1 seed and a big improvement.
Vegas isn't buying in yet, but historically anyone on a 1 seed gets consideration and he's obv respected as a top player.

It might be unlikely, but I don't see him as the major long shot he's being made out to be.

[nuraman00]

Your formatting seems to be off in this post.

It looks bunched together.

Leonard, Jokic, Durant (depends on games played), Antetokounmpo would be my top list.

I think Embiid will fall below the 66 game mark so I'm excluding him.

Haliburton deserves some kind of a mention, but will probably fall out of the games requirement.

Clippers will end up tied or higher than Denver. However, that should have little impact on Jokic's consideration. He's just too good.

[nuraman00]

I don't know if Doncic is significantly worse. But I don't think he's going to meet the games requirement.

And even if he does, to me, Leonard might have a large advantage in health, which matters to me.

[nuraman00]

For these season awards and all NBA teams, with this 66 game minimum, I consider it a significant health advantage if it's more than a 2 game difference.

I like the minimum btw. A line has to be drawn somewhere. This means you have to play more than 79% of games (which is what 65 games would have been).

That line season reasonable.

Even in baseball this year, Shoehei Ohtani missed the end of the season. But he played in 83.333% of his games as a hitter.

Pitched in 23 games for 132 IP.


Is it going to be a little weird that Embiid, Haliburton might not make All-NBA? Sure. But if they can't play in 80% of their games, there are other deserving candidates.

[nuraman00]

I like how Kawhi is 3rd in steals per game. That matters a lot to me.

He's at 1.7. If he could somehow get over 2.0, that would be great, even though I think 2.0 is low compared to the way steals leaders used to be 13 years ago, at a slower pace. People stole the ball more at those slower paces.

He would need 85 steals over his remaining 36 games, which would be a 2.36 average, to get over 2.0.

[nuraman00]

Feb 1, 2024 13:03:40 GMT -8 hitnrun24 said:

I think we've moved beyond just numbers in the stat era, but I guess we'll see. Rose won the MVP in '11 with inferior numbers to Lebron due to being a 1 seed and a big improvement.

2011 just shows the media voters DIDN'T look at numbers.

Rose won MVP shooting 44% with 7.7 assists.  Only 6 FTA a game.

If I want to compare with another not great shooting guard, I'll bring up Allen Iverson's MVP year.

However, Iverson lead the league in scoring, lead the league in steals, averaged 10.1 FTAs a game (and was known for attacking the paint).

He was 4th in FTAs that year.

Leading the league in two categories, and being top 4 in FTAs (which is a game changer), is MVP worthy to me.

Unlike Derrick Rose, who was 7th in ppg, 10th in assists per game, 11th in free throw attempts.  Those are not elite enough.

[nuraman00]

hitnrun24, I think you edited your post.

Formatting looks much better in the OP now.

[hitnrun24]

Feb 2, 2024 13:31:45 GMT -8 nuraman00 said:

Your formatting seems to be off in this post.

It looks bunched together.

Leonard, Jokic, Durant (depends on games played), Antetokounmpo would be my top list.

I think Embiid will fall below the 66 game mark so I'm excluding him.

Haliburton deserves some kind of a mention, but will probably fall out of the games requirement.

Clippers will end up tied or higher than Denver. However, that should have little impact on Jokic's consideration. He's just too good.

Thanks for the heads up. Yes I think Jokic is def the favorite and he'll have the narrative that he's on a team with no other all stars, though Murray would def be one in the East imo.

For Kawhi to get it, the narrative would need to be 1 seed and defensive impact to overcome the raw numbers.

Also will people look at stuff like well Kawhi has never won an MVP, but he's been one of the best players in the league for a while now whereas Jokic got 2 already with more prob to come. 

[nuraman00]

I think if he could lead the league in steals per game, that would give him a big boost.

When his MVP potential resume is mentioned, people would have to mention the steals.

[nuraman00]

Antetokounmpo might have his career best ppg (very close), and is having his assists per game.

He is 5% higher in FG% than any other season. 55% vs. 60%. That's a huge difference.

He's having his 2nd best steals per game.

Those are some great cases for him.

The biggest knock would be the Bucks poor team defense.  Whether it's his fault or not, it does hurt his case.

[nuraman00]

hitnrun24, did you originally post from a mobile device?

I rarely make long posts from one, but when I do, the formatting doesn't really look that good either.

[jglanton]

Was listening to NBA Radio this a.m., Sam Mitchell and Brian G, and they were doing their revised MVP top five lists. Brian has moved Kawhi up into fourth in large part because he's the main force behind the Clippers West-leading January 12-3 record. If he keeps playing like this he will move higher, while Embiid will drop out if he misses more games.

[v-ice]

+15000 in Vegas for Kawhi to be MVP.

[hitnrun24]

Feb 2, 2024 14:45:12 GMT -8 nuraman00 said:

hitnrun24 , did you originally post from a mobile device?

I rarely make long posts from one, but when I do, the formatting doesn't really look that good either.

Yes, weird

[hitnrun24]

Feb 3, 2024 22:14:17 GMT -8 v-ice said:

+15000 in Vegas for Kawhi to be MVP.

I'm not sure what I'm missing on this one. I guess I don't follow MVP too often since it's been a while since we had someone in serious conversation, but it seems like it rewards stats more than impact. Not saying the other guys don't have good arguments, but ppl seem to be not even entertaining Kawhi for MVP even if Clippers get a 1 seed even though he's usually always the best player on the court.