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Post by nuraman00 on Apr 28, 2024 22:44:35 GMT -8
Even without Murray for the rest of the series, I think Denver is still good enough to beat the Lakers at least once out of the next 3 games because Jokic is that good. I mean look at Miami against Boston for an example as well as a Giannis-less Bucks. I picked the Lakers over a healthy Nuggets team but coming back from 3-0? It's definitely more possible without Murray but I think the Lakers missed their chance.. Odds are they probably get 1, but I would give the Lakers a real chance of doing the unthinkable. I've watched a few games of theirs this season without Murray and they were a very different team without him in. But yes def possible Jokic or Porter (or both) go off and they still win. Or that Reggie is hot that game. Lakers aren't playing bad though. They're getting leads. With Murray healthy I think there's no chance of a come back. If he was out for the series, I could put it at 20% maybe. Considering the rest of their rosters, even though Kawhi is better, I'd say Denver is definitely worse off without Murray than the Clippers are without Kawhi. If Murray is out the whole series, then yeah, I think the Lakers have a chance at the series.
I also still think Philadelphia can win theirs.
When doing my game by game prediction, I've never predicted a comeback from down 0-2 or 3-1. Maybe I should have done it in the Philly vs. New York series.
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Post by nuraman00 on Apr 28, 2024 22:45:40 GMT -8
You're right he ain't washed but he hasn't had that stinker of a game yet either.....just when you feel good about him........ Most players will have at least 1-2 stinkers in a 7 game series. I don't know if everyone can come out and scream how right they were if that happens. I still don't think he has to carry as much of the load as he's had in the past. George and Powell can still provide a lot of scoring. Even Zu in this match up can be someone they give a lot of possessions to. The one thing we haven't seen yet is a bad defensive Harden game.
It's probably a matter of time. But I'd rather have it be in the 2nd round than 1st round.
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Post by nuraman00 on Apr 28, 2024 22:52:34 GMT -8
If anyone's wondering the last time a series winner won games 1, 4, 5, 6, this is the last one I remember. www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/2015-nba-western-conference-semifinals-grizzlies-vs-warriors.htmlI believe winning 1, 4, 6, 7 is more common. And 1, 4, 5, 7 is probably the most common, given this series order through 4 games. FYI, I'm giving examples of the Clippers winning a series. I'm not going to look up, or go by memory, of a Dallas series win. Which would be 2/3/5/6, 2/3/5/7, or 2/3/6/7. I mean, I have a hunch about a few series that went those ways, but I don't want to think about the Dallas win scenario.
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Post by nuraman00 on Apr 29, 2024 0:07:53 GMT -8
Just going back to the series order.
I'm pretty sure any of the 3 remaining paths Dallas has to win, have occurred more often then one of the Clippers paths: 1/4/5/6.
But, I think the two other Clipper paths have happened a decent amount of times, given the first four games that have happened so far.
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Post by dane on Apr 29, 2024 1:41:11 GMT -8
Odds are they probably get 1, but I would give the Lakers a real chance of doing the unthinkable. I've watched a few games of theirs this season without Murray and they were a very different team without him in. But yes def possible Jokic or Porter (or both) go off and they still win. Or that Reggie is hot that game. Lakers aren't playing bad though. They're getting leads. With Murray healthy I think there's no chance of a come back. If he was out for the series, I could put it at 20% maybe. Considering the rest of their rosters, even though Kawhi is better, I'd say Denver is definitely worse off without Murray than the Clippers are without Kawhi. If Murray is out the whole series, then yeah, I think the Lakers have a chance at the series.
I also still think Philadelphia can win theirs.
When doing my game by game prediction, I've never predicted a comeback from down 0-2 or 3-1. Maybe I should have done it in the Philly vs. New York series.
If the LeLakers win, I will have to eviscerate myself.
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Post by mistwell on Apr 29, 2024 6:05:29 GMT -8
I mentioned this a few days ago, but I'd rather double him, when he's having a game like this.
It's not like Luka is right next to him. If Kyrie passes, it will take a few passes to get to Luka; eat up more shot clock; and maybe the Clippers can get a deflection.
If Kyrie scores, at least it will be tougher than what happened today.
Harden having two good games this series is pretty good.
As for who the best player on Dallas is, they can both be, when it calls for it. They both make shots.
Only disappointment in a big picture (not necessarily for this year) is that Dallas couldn't find a way to make it work with Porzingis. Although Porzingis getting hurt had something to do with that too.
Not sure if they could have had Doncic, Porzingis, and Irving on the same team, but having that would have given them a lot of balance.
All things considered, I'd rather have a team that rebounds better, if I'm thinking about four rounds, than what Dallas has. But Dallas is good enough to win a round or two. At some point their size would presumably hurt them.
Good point. I'd definitely consider it. You would hate for Luka to find a rhythm. He really hasn't had a great game yet, which I think Mavs could feel optimistic that they're tied and Luka has yet to be himself. It's likely at minimum if Kawhi didn't return though that this series could be 3-1 Clippers. If we can limit Kyrie a bit, we should be able to win this series as long as Harden and George don't completely implode. I think the Clippers have a clear advantage on the 3-7 guys. Keep in mind Luka played the final 10 games of the season (the ones he actually played in) pretty poorly. People were making excuses, and maybe those excuses were correct. But realistically he hasn't had a good game in a while now, even before the playoffs.
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Post by mistwell on Apr 29, 2024 6:06:22 GMT -8
So James Harden is not washed. I am unsure if he or Kyrie is the best player in this series so far. It's not Luka, PG or Kawhi. You're right he ain't washed but he hasn't had that stinker of a game yet either.....just when you feel good about him........ Yeah that's "so far."
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Post by mistwell on Apr 29, 2024 6:08:32 GMT -8
If Murray is out the whole series, then yeah, I think the Lakers have a chance at the series.
I also still think Philadelphia can win theirs.
When doing my game by game prediction, I've never predicted a comeback from down 0-2 or 3-1. Maybe I should have done it in the Philly vs. New York series.
If the LeLakers win, I will have to eviscerate myself. I prefer you perform seppuku
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Post by basketcase on Apr 29, 2024 6:48:29 GMT -8
It would be nice if the refs called illegal screens on Dallas every now and then. Lively pushes off at the end of the screen every time and Gafford only sets moving screens. But somehow, we are the ones always getting called for it.
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Post by dane on Apr 29, 2024 7:24:21 GMT -8
If the LeLakers win, I will have to eviscerate myself. I prefer you perform seppuku Not sure how that is done properly; can you show me? (or better, volunteer one of our mutual poster-friends to do so).
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Post by htownfan on Apr 29, 2024 8:33:22 GMT -8
You're right he ain't washed but he hasn't had that stinker of a game yet either.....just when you feel good about him........ Most players will have at least 1-2 stinkers in a 7 game series. I don't know if everyone can come out and scream how right they were if that happens. I still don't think he has to carry as much of the load as he's had in the past. George and Powell can still provide a lot of scoring. Even Zu in this match up can be someone they give a lot of possessions to. Yeah most may have a stinker offensively but great players affect the game in other ways when the shot is not falling. With Harden though it seems to happen at the most inopportune time like in win or go home games, he comes up short. And I would have to disagree with you on Denver being worse off without Murray vs you guys without Leonard. IMHO, i think Denver would still take the Clipps in a seven game series in the scenario. Leonard brings that 'dog" mentality when healthy and he severely impacts the game on both sides of the ball.
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Post by htownfan on Apr 29, 2024 8:49:37 GMT -8
Most players will have at least 1-2 stinkers in a 7 game series. I don't know if everyone can come out and scream how right they were if that happens. I still don't think he has to carry as much of the load as he's had in the past. George and Powell can still provide a lot of scoring. Even Zu in this match up can be someone they give a lot of possessions to. The one thing we haven't seen yet is a bad defensive Harden game.
It's probably a matter of time. But I'd rather have it be in the 2nd round than 1st round.
I have always thought this was over-exaggerated. Harden's defense is really not as bad as people make it out to be and when he is defending in the post he is above average to me.
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Post by corkscrew on Apr 29, 2024 9:01:31 GMT -8
Good point. I'd definitely consider it. You would hate for Luka to find a rhythm. He really hasn't had a great game yet, which I think Mavs could feel optimistic that they're tied and Luka has yet to be himself. It's likely at minimum if Kawhi didn't return though that this series could be 3-1 Clippers. If we can limit Kyrie a bit, we should be able to win this series as long as Harden and George don't completely implode. I think the Clippers have a clear advantage on the 3-7 guys. Keep in mind Luka played the final 10 games of the season (the ones he actually played in) pretty poorly. People were making excuses, and maybe those excuses were correct. But realistically he hasn't had a good game in a while now, even before the playoffs. I'm not sure what you guys are talking about. He had a triple double in Game 4: 29 10 10 His career numbers: 28.7 8.7 8.3 His average for this series: 29 9.75 8.5
BTW, these are phenomenal numbers for a 25 year old player.
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Post by nuraman00 on Apr 29, 2024 9:18:19 GMT -8
Good point. I'd definitely consider it. You would hate for Luka to find a rhythm. He really hasn't had a great game yet, which I think Mavs could feel optimistic that they're tied and Luka has yet to be himself. It's likely at minimum if Kawhi didn't return though that this series could be 3-1 Clippers. If we can limit Kyrie a bit, we should be able to win this series as long as Harden and George don't completely implode. I think the Clippers have a clear advantage on the 3-7 guys. Keep in mind Luka played the final 10 games of the season (the ones he actually played in) pretty poorly. People were making excuses, and maybe those excuses were correct. But realistically he hasn't had a good game in a while now, even before the playoffs. Luka's end of the season performance was noted in my predictions. I cited he, Haliburton, Fox, Durant, and Holmgren as some key performers who hadn't been playing that well in a while, for at least a month.
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Post by nuraman00 on Apr 29, 2024 9:18:57 GMT -8
Keep in mind Luka played the final 10 games of the season (the ones he actually played in) pretty poorly. People were making excuses, and maybe those excuses were correct. But realistically he hasn't had a good game in a while now, even before the playoffs. I'm not sure what you guys are talking about. He had a triple double in Game 4: 29 10 10 His career numbers: 28.7 8.7 8.3 His average for this series: 29 9.75 8.5
BTW, these are phenomenal numbers for a 25 year old player. To me, the main decline is FG%. The other stuff is fine. The players I listed had a sharp decline in FG%, and it's noticeable in each of their monthly splits, with the decline starting around March for most. Haliburton's preceded even that.
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