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Post by clipanswerman on Feb 7, 2019 15:01:05 GMT -8
BTW, the reason there hasn't been a 'whiff of a rumor' about a trade for AD is because our assets don't compare to the Lakers and Clippers assets.
We traded a second round pick today. Does anyone care? Don't list second round picks as assets. They're no big deal.
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Post by clipanswerman on Feb 7, 2019 15:01:28 GMT -8
Meant don't compare to the Lakers or Boston's assets.
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Post by mistwell on Feb 7, 2019 15:20:22 GMT -8
I have seen zero news of us trading a second round pick today. Link?
A Detroit 2nd round pick is actually likely just below a low first round pick and, due to guarantees for first round picks, is sometimes valued more than a low first round pick. Your claim that second round picks are not assets is bullshit. I assure you, West and Frank list it as a team asset, and rightfully so. Nobody said it was a "big deal" so that's just your dismissive attempt at a strawman. I said it was an asset, which is accurate.
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Post by prince2250 on Feb 7, 2019 15:25:30 GMT -8
Waiting for clipsahoy , gpack17 , hitnrun24 , hooch20 , htownfan , jewelthough , kandi34 , mountcyanide , prince2250 , @rhy1244 , rostick , samiam19 , vfhs , vicrattlehead , wwtcbwsr 's thoughts. Smartest and boldest move since the BG trade which I will consider all of this essentially one trade with multiple pieces. |
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Post by tullabye on Feb 7, 2019 15:45:24 GMT -8
Guys, I don't want to round and round and round but I'll add this. (1) of course the Clippers would want AD in a trade. That's a no-brainer. (2) If you're comparing draft picks or discussing draft picks, it's a bit of a homer move to say '2 or whatever, 'first-round' draft picks. A first round draft pick could be 1, it could be 29. The difference between those two is massive. Let's dissect our draft picks objectively, if we can: The 2020 Philly first round pick, I believe will be a low first round pick. Next year they'll have Embid, Simmons and either Tobias or Butler, maybe both. I'd put that pick right now at anywhere between 23 and 27. That's not a great pick. It's not a great value. The 2021 Miami pick: This pick is a wild card. It could be 1, it could be 30. Where will Miami finish in 2020? Who knows, but based on their talent, their willingness to have a high payroll and other teams in the league who have a far bleaker future, my guess is this pick will end up anywhere between 8-20. That's a wide range. Let's say it ends at 10. That's a nice pick. It's not an outstanding pick. Our own 2019 pick. This is just me, but I don't view this pick as a result of maneuvering that deserves back slapping. We got ourselves into this mess of potentially losing the pick in the first place. In any case, my guess is it will be between 10-15 if we get it, which I think we will, probably around 12. And we have Shai to deal, which I'd like not to. Jerome Robinson has been a disappointment, albeit in limited time. There are times when he's on the court for 12 minutes in a game and touches the ball three times. If you take off the Clipper glasses, I'd suspect that Shai's value is equal to Ball and Ingram, slightly less than Kuzma. The four of them are all in the same ball park right now in value. But no, in terms of a trade for AD, I do not think we have better assets than the Lakers. I know it's nice to say 'but people don't like the Lakers'. At the end of the day, teams will do what's best for them and players will do what's best for them. We also now have Shamet, Motley (could be good) and of course the best of the bunch in Harrell. I am glad a trade didn’t go down and we can now see what these players look like with extended minutes. |
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Post by trapp76 on Feb 7, 2019 15:47:37 GMT -8
Blake trade has now given us:
- SGA
- Shamet
- Zubac
- 2 first round picks (one unprotected from MIA)
- 3 second round picks
- a max cap slot in 2019
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Post by mistwell on Feb 7, 2019 15:53:12 GMT -8
Blake trade has now given us: - SGA - Shamet - Zubac - 2 first round picks (one unprotected from MIA) - 3 second round picks - a max cap slot in 2019 SGA, Shamet and Zubac are all quality first round level picks. It's like we got 8 picks (5 first round picks, and 3 second round picks) and cap relief for Blake Griffin. We also got Green, Chandler, and Temple. Personally, I like Green, and Chandler is a serviceable backup. |
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Post by v-ice on Feb 7, 2019 20:07:13 GMT -8
I feel we are better and talented team after all these trades..
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Post by samiam19 on Feb 8, 2019 8:47:37 GMT -8
We won this trade... we have a bunch of coveted 1st rounders and we don't have to pay Tobias anymore... meaning we can save our money for a better player
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Post by clipanswerman on Feb 8, 2019 9:47:28 GMT -8
Regarding assets for an AD trade, someone asked what the Knicks have. There is a very good chance that the Knicks will have a top 3 pick this year. That is far better than our picks. This board is excited that we have a 'who knows where' first round pick in three drafts. Any GM would rather have a top three pick this year for him.
I'll say this about 'cap space'. It's only good if (a) you use it, and (b) you use it on players that were better than you had. So I'll say it again. The second FA we get with our cap space better be better than Blake or Tobias, otherwise, we didn't 'win' anything.
One Final Question. We've been hearing all along, way before the Tobias trade that the Clips had two max cap room slots. Now after the trade, everyone's jumping for joy that we have two max cap room slots. What's the new advantage? That we instead of 'renouncing' Tobias, we get these two extra picks. I'll say it again. I'd rather have Tobias in my pocket as a second 'star' than those picks for a trade. Maybe I'm missing something.
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Post by clippers1121 on Feb 8, 2019 10:08:43 GMT -8
Tobias isn't in our pocket. We offered him 4 years/80 million and he turned us down. Now he is making his contract drive this season and putting up great numbers. Our choice was to pay him a maximum or near maximum contract or lose him for nothing. Locking in these types of players can easily get you to the playoffs but they do not let you compete for championships. You need top 10 players in the league to compete for championships. And Tobias isn't even top 25. So the strategy is to try for championships instead of settling for playoffs and early eliminations.
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Post by gilp5 on Feb 8, 2019 10:13:14 GMT -8
Tobias isn't in our pocket. We offered him 4 years/80 million and he turned us down. Now he is making his contract drive this season and putting up great numbers. Our choice was to pay him a maximum or near maximum contract or lose him for nothing. Locking in these types of players can easily get you to the playoffs but they do not let you compete for championships. You need top 10 players in the league to compete for championships. And Tobias isn't even top 25. So the strategy is to try for championships instead of settling for playoffs and early eliminations. He is not a maximum contract guy but someone will overpay him. He's a very good third or fourth option on a team. |
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Post by trapp76 on Feb 8, 2019 10:51:26 GMT -8
Tobias isn't in our pocket. We offered him 4 years/80 million and he turned us down. Now he is making his contract drive this season and putting up great numbers. Our choice was to pay him a maximum or near maximum contract or lose him for nothing. Locking in these types of players can easily get you to the playoffs but they do not let you compete for championships. You need top 10 players in the league to compete for championships. And Tobias isn't even top 25. So the strategy is to try for championships instead of settling for playoffs and early eliminations. +1 .........and Blake wasn't a championship level player either, but we were paying him like one. One of the things I really like about this front office is that they hardly ever let an asset walk for nothing, they always get something rather than nothing if they feel like they are going to lose someone. The only exception I can think of is DJ, but as we see now, he is not considered that valuable of an asset around the league (Dallas sent him packing less than a season into his contract and basically only for salary matching purposes). I think they gambled that he would opt into the last year of his deal, but he didn't, can't win em all. They offered Tobias 4/80 and he turned it down. So the question then became, do we want to give Tobias Harris a max contract or not? The answer was obviously "no" and it was the correct answer. As far as AD goes, if the Knicks get the number 1 pick and offer it to the Pelicans, that is a no-brainer and of course they are going to take that to get Zion. We may or may not be able to put together the best offer for him, but the offer we can put together for him now is sure as hell better than the one we would have been able to put together before. Now, lets say this off-season we sign Kawhi with one max spot and we don't get a star to take our second max slot. Does that mean the Tobias trade was a failure? Not necessarily. We may roll that cap space over to 2020 and get a star player with it then. We may be able to absorb a star player into that cap space through a trade using some of the draft assets or player assets we got in the Tobias trade later on. We may get a group of players who end up collectively having the same or similar value to Tobias while also having Shamet and all those extra picks in our war chest (which we would not have had unless we made the Tobias trade), we may end up holding onto that Miami pick and having it turn into a top 5 pick, so there are several factors in play there to determine whether the trade ultimately ends up being a "success" or not, and we may not really know immediately after one year. |
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Post by tullabye on Feb 8, 2019 12:20:26 GMT -8
The trade is a success no matter what happens moving forward. We had an option to not make a trade and lose Tobias for nothing. We weren’t going to overpay him. He turned us down and isn’t nearly a max player in my mind. Nice guy, good player and I wish him all of the best. I’m sure some scrub team will overpay for him and am thankful it wasn’t us.
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Post by clipanswerman on Feb 8, 2019 12:47:22 GMT -8
I respectfully disagree with both of you guys.
First, Tullabye and Trapp (BTW, as an FYI, the Clips offered 5 years/80m to him, not 4 years 80m, which has been constantly reported incorrectly. I don't remember the exact rule, but the most the Clippers could offer Tobias on a new contract this past offseason starting next season was something like 12% more than he was making this season and for 5 seasons. They offered him the most they could which came to $80m over five. Somehow that got morphed to four years on the Internet and repeated over and over. He makes 14.8m this year which is actually less than he made last year, he had a decreasing contract, but I digress.) I think it's very possible Tobias gets more than the max that another team can offer him, but less than the max that his own team can offer him. It's a huge difference. So I don't believe it's a choice of trading him or losing him for nothing - not at all. In fact, that notion was never raised anywhere by anyone prior to the trade. Anthony Davis? Now that's a situation where the team needs to trade him or they'll lose him for nothing. Tobias might very well have worked something out with the Clips for a reasonable figure. We'll never know.
As for Trapp's point that the trade isn't a failure if we get one free agent and not another, cause we can get a top free agent in 2020. That's true of course. But at some point, the plan has to come to fruition. When we signed Blake to his max contract (more on whether he's worth it or not in a second) in 2017, we did not have the opportunity to pair him with a second max player. Somehow, some way, perhaps we could have. But in '17-'18 the argument went, what was the point in having one max player? You need two. Now in '18-'19 we have no max players but we had Tobias. That's now two seasons of Blake's max contract not paired with another max contract. Now if we get Kwahi (if we get him) this offseason and no second max player, that's year three of Blake's five year max contract with no pairing of max players. Which is the whole point here, right - get two of the best players you can. I'd certainly rather have Kwahi and Blake next year then Kwahi and cap space. So now we're up to 2020 hoping to get our second max player and we've been wanting and needing a second max slot since 2017. At what point do you say, the 'strategy' of dropping a max player so you could get two didn't work? After three years? After four years? You can kick this can down the road for many years.
Now, is Blake good enough at age 28,29,30,31,32 to be the best player on a great team? No. The second best player? Very possibly, especially if you have Lou, Montrez, a young player and Gallo. We'll never know. Blake has weaknesses for sure. But he, unlike Tobias, still commands a double team. That's huge. He plays on a team with very little talent.
So at what point is the Blake trade a success? 2025? At what point is the Tobias trade a success? I said it a year ago and I'll say it again. The Blake trade is a success if and only if the Clips sign two max players in 2018 or 2019 who are both better than Blake. And significantly better too. The Tobias trade is a success of that happens in 2019 as well. Not in 2020. I guess you can delay the results of a trade in perpetuity, but at some point too much time has elapsed between the trade and the alleged bounty as a result of that trade. Often the bounty if it's realized is partially from another mitigating factor that, in order to assess the trade, you'd have to weigh with the original position.
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