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Post by gilp5 on Nov 5, 2024 11:36:27 GMT -8
I agree with you that local politics ultimately impact your life more than national politics. National politics are about big issues, but local politics are more likely to come up in your life. Abortion for example is a big issue. It's important. But the odds are you will not personally encounter abortion in your life in the next four years. You will however encounter road closures, taxes, regulations, crime, meaningful changes at places you shop and otherwise attend, and a variety of other issues that are on the local ballot today. In that sense, the local politics will impact your life more directly and frequently than the national ones. Yes Mistwell 100% agree. And there are several important local and state issues on the ballot that will directly impact our daily lives. |
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Post by nuraman00 on Nov 5, 2024 11:43:52 GMT -8
Not everything is national politics. What about local and state? In many ways, local elections impact our daily lives much more than national elections. Hochman will win district attorney in Los Angeles in a landslide. I hope Prop 34 passes. Healthcare funding should not go to pet political projects of the CEO of a healthcare company that have nothing to do with healthcare. What about raising and continuing the sales tax in LA for homeless? We pay the highest sales tax of any county in the state (I think). The money is supposed to go to homeless projects but the situation has not gotten any better, despite billions in spending. How do you interpret Prop 34? |
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Post by mistwell on Nov 5, 2024 11:43:58 GMT -8
For the election itself, Nate Silver ran 80,000 simulations last night. The result was Harris won in 40,012, and Trump won (or tied, with tie going to Trump due to House composition) in 39,988 of them. Apparently a coin toss does not have exactly 50-50 odds and these odds based on this simulation are even closer to 50-50 than a coin toss. In his 9 elections he's covered, no simulation has ever come this close to 50-50 odds. Silver got badly burned in 2016. I'm curious if he adjusted his methodology to cover himself, but at the same time does not personally believe it is that close. He has adjusted. And he was wrong on 2016, but he was more-right than 95% of the rest of them out there making predictions. As to whether he personally believes it is that close? I don't know, but he does discuss that. I say I don't know because the bastard gave all his explanation EXCEPT that part, and you have to be a paid subscriber to his bulletin to get the remainder of his journal entry which discusses his personal opinion, and I am not paying to join. |
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Post by mistwell on Nov 5, 2024 11:49:30 GMT -8
Not everything is national politics. What about local and state? In many ways, local elections impact our daily lives much more than national elections. Hochman will win district attorney in Los Angeles in a landslide. I hope Prop 34 passes. Healthcare funding should not go to pet political projects of the CEO of a healthcare company that have nothing to do with healthcare. What about raising and continuing the sales tax in LA for homeless? We pay the highest sales tax of any county in the state (I think). The money is supposed to go to homeless projects but the situation has not gotten any better, despite billions in spending. How do you interpret Prop 34? One frustrating thing I did this election, which I don't think I've ever done before, is I failed to keep my sample ballot after voting. I tossed it in the trash. And because there are so many props and judicial positions and school board positions and all the rest, I just don't keep it all in my head. I spend a lot of time researching each thing and choosing, but I don't memorize my choice every time. And I honestly cannot remember how I voted on Prop 34. I'd have to retrace my research steps on that one to really know. I remember it was complicated. I THINK I voted in favor of Prop 34. I know one complication had to do with the AIDS Healthcare Foundation promoting rent control and being restricted by Prop 34 from doing that in some manner. |
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Post by nuraman00 on Nov 5, 2024 13:00:07 GMT -8
How do you interpret Prop 34? One frustrating thing I did this election, which I don't think I've ever done before, is I failed to keep my sample ballot after voting. I tossed it in the trash. And because there are so many props and judicial positions and school board positions and all the rest, I just don't keep it all in my head. I spend a lot of time researching each thing and choosing, but I don't memorize my choice every time. And I honestly cannot remember how I voted on Prop 34. I'd have to retrace my research steps on that one to really know. I remember it was complicated. I THINK I voted in favor of Prop 34. I know one complication had to do with the AIDS Healthcare Foundation promoting rent control and being restricted by Prop 34 from doing that in some manner. Yes, that part confused me too. As of now I put no, but haven't gone to the polls yet. Was hoping gilp5 or someone could clarify. Prop 2: Yes Prop 3: Yes Prop 4: Yes Prop 5: Yes Prop 6: Yes Prop 32: No Prop 33: No Prop 34: No??? Prop 35: Yes Prop 36: Yes Senator: Steve Garvey |
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Post by mistwell on Nov 5, 2024 13:30:33 GMT -8
538, which is no longer run by Nate Silver but is run by people I tend to appreciate, also says this about the Presidential Election right now, "Harris wins 50 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. Trump wins 49 times out of 100. There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner." So they also see this essentially as a coin toss election (I think theirs is 503 to 497).
They also say, "There is a 8-in-100 chance that Harris wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes)." So anyone saying this will be a landslide is backing very steep odds.
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Post by gilp5 on Nov 5, 2024 14:10:32 GMT -8
How do you interpret Prop 34? One frustrating thing I did this election, which I don't think I've ever done before, is I failed to keep my sample ballot after voting. I tossed it in the trash. And because there are so many props and judicial positions and school board positions and all the rest, I just don't keep it all in my head. I spend a lot of time researching each thing and choosing, but I don't memorize my choice every time. And I honestly cannot remember how I voted on Prop 34. I'd have to retrace my research steps on that one to really know. I remember it was complicated. I THINK I voted in favor of Prop 34. I know one complication had to do with the AIDS Healthcare Foundation promoting rent control and being restricted by Prop 34 from doing that in some manner. Prop 34 is worded very confusingly. I hope it passes but not sure if it will. I voted yes. The gist of it is that around 2016 the city of LA approved a huge housing complex in Hollywood called the Palladeum complex. The complex would block the spectacular views of the Aids Healthcare Foundation building next door. The CEO of AHF was furious and sued to block the construction and lost using healthcare money that is supposed to go to HIV patients. Since that time the CEO has made it his life mission to block housing construction and use healthcare money to do it. He sponsored one local bill and now 3 propositions on housing (while spending 300 MILLION in healthcare money) and all of his initiatives have lost so far (prop 33 is one of them). How many lives could have been impacted by that amount of healthcare money? Some of the initiatives are ostensibly about rent control (like prop 33) but they are really about housing construction. The AHF CEO knows that strict rent control laws will disincentivize housing construction. The housing industry sponsored prop 34, which is worded so narrowly that it only applies to this one organization - aids healthcare foundation - to say that they must spend 98% of their money on healthcare and not housing initiatives and lawsuits. Opponents of prop 34 do not like that a proposition is being used to single out one organization, even if the organization is acting egregiously. I disagree. I put aside the issue of form/method as long as the result is good. This organization should not be spending hundreds of millions of dollars of healthcare money on anti-housing contruction bills. If the CEO wants to spend his personal fortune, that's different, but he is taking away money that should go to healthcare patients for his pet project. |
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Post by mistwell on Nov 5, 2024 16:46:54 GMT -8
Thanks for the inside info Glip5. Wish I had asked before I voted.
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Post by nuraman00 on Nov 5, 2024 18:16:32 GMT -8
One frustrating thing I did this election, which I don't think I've ever done before, is I failed to keep my sample ballot after voting. I tossed it in the trash. And because there are so many props and judicial positions and school board positions and all the rest, I just don't keep it all in my head. I spend a lot of time researching each thing and choosing, but I don't memorize my choice every time. And I honestly cannot remember how I voted on Prop 34. I'd have to retrace my research steps on that one to really know. I remember it was complicated. I THINK I voted in favor of Prop 34. I know one complication had to do with the AIDS Healthcare Foundation promoting rent control and being restricted by Prop 34 from doing that in some manner. Prop 34 is worded very confusingly. I hope it passes but not sure if it will. I voted yes. The gist of it is that around 2016 the city of LA approved a huge housing complex in Hollywood called the Palladeum complex. The complex would block the spectacular views of the Aids Healthcare Foundation building next door. The CEO of AHF was furious and sued to block the construction and lost using healthcare money that is supposed to go to HIV patients. Since that time the CEO has made it his life mission to block housing construction and use healthcare money to do it. He sponsored one local bill and now 3 propositions on housing (while spending 300 MILLION in healthcare money) and all of his initiatives have lost so far (prop 33 is one of them). How many lives could have been impacted by that amount of healthcare money? Some of the initiatives are ostensibly about rent control (like prop 33) but they are really about housing construction. The AHF CEO knows that strict rent control laws will disincentivize housing construction. The housing industry sponsored prop 34, which is worded so narrowly that it only applies to this one organization - aids healthcare foundation - to say that they must spend 98% of their money on healthcare and not housing initiatives and lawsuits. Opponents of prop 34 do not like that a proposition is being used to single out one organization, even if the organization is acting egregiously. I disagree. I put aside the issue of form/method as long as the result is good. This organization should not be spending hundreds of millions of dollars of healthcare money on anti-housing contruction bills. If the CEO wants to spend his personal fortune, that's different, but he is taking away money that should go to healthcare patients for his pet project. What is the status of the Palladeum complex now? Didn't it already get built?
Is this it?
If Prop 33, which would repeal rent control passed, does he think people would start to move out of the Palladium? If that's the correct, already built, one.
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Post by mistwell on Nov 5, 2024 19:39:03 GMT -8
So still too early to call but...right now if I had to bet I'd say Trump is going to win this.
Which would be so disappointing.
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Post by clipzfan611 on Nov 5, 2024 22:25:27 GMT -8
Only a fool predicts the future. Only a smug, conceited fool predicts the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
Guess I’m a smug, conceited fool:All the polls — the highly regarded polls with track records, the scientific polls, the well funded, independent, non-partisan, dispassionate polls — have been reporting a very tight race, a coin flip, a nose finish. I say phooey! I say the pollsters are wrong because they are evaluating the electorate according to its past and recent behavior, albeit understandably and soberly. Not this year, I say. This year will be radically different. This year will be a Winston Churchill and a William Henry Seward year. So I predict: — Kamala will win, — Kamala will win decisively. — Kamala will easily carry the so-called “Blue Wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. — Kamala will also carry at least two of the remaining four swing states of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, likely all four. — Kamala may also carry at least one state not even considered a swing state, probably Iowa. I would not be shocked by Nebraska or Kansas. Yes, you heard me right, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska. Even Ohio and Indiana are not totally out of the question. The Midwest in general will surprise everyone by moving away from Trump and closer to Harris as compared to 2016 and 2020. — Outside chance she might even carry Florida and/or Texas. Not likely, but the margin in these two states will be much, much closer than expected and will stir the national political pot.
Was laughing at this yesterday but this aged hilariously. At least you warned us. Go touch grass it'll be alright.
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Post by mistwell on Nov 5, 2024 23:45:12 GMT -8
Looks like he won the popular vote according to NYT.
And GOP won the Senate.
House remains unclear. Big Orange Dude is claiming GOP will keep House. They might but right now that's undecided.
Locally Gascon is gone. I am happy about that, as I thought he was terrible and know DA's who agreed he had destroyed morale in the office. Kevin de Leon looks to also be gone. Good riddance to that racist.
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Post by tullabye on Nov 6, 2024 0:12:38 GMT -8
Now I know what Harris meant by the joy of politics because I’m feeling it right now! America was fed up with the leftist nonsense and has given President Trump the wheel. Sit back and enjoy the ride.
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Post by tullabye on Nov 6, 2024 0:16:52 GMT -8
Only a fool predicts the future. Only a smug, conceited fool predicts the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
Guess I’m a smug, conceited fool:All the polls — the highly regarded polls with track records, the scientific polls, the well funded, independent, non-partisan, dispassionate polls — have been reporting a very tight race, a coin flip, a nose finish. I say phooey! I say the pollsters are wrong because they are evaluating the electorate according to its past and recent behavior, albeit understandably and soberly. Not this year, I say. This year will be radically different. This year will be a Winston Churchill and a William Henry Seward year. So I predict: — Kamala will win, — Kamala will win decisively. — Kamala will easily carry the so-called “Blue Wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. — Kamala will also carry at least two of the remaining four swing states of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, likely all four. — Kamala may also carry at least one state not even considered a swing state, probably Iowa. I would not be shocked by Nebraska or Kansas. Yes, you heard me right, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska. Even Ohio and Indiana are not totally out of the question. The Midwest in general will surprise everyone by moving away from Trump and closer to Harris as compared to 2016 and 2020. — Outside chance she might even carry Florida and/or Texas. Not likely, but the margin in these two states will be much, much closer than expected and will stir the national political pot.
Was laughing at this yesterday but this aged hilariously. At least you warned us. Go touch grass it'll be alright.
I know it’s corkscrew and all but talk about delusional. |
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Post by gilp5 on Nov 6, 2024 9:58:18 GMT -8
Looks like he won the popular vote according to NYT. And GOP won the Senate. House remains unclear. Big Orange Dude is claiming GOP will keep House. They might but right now that's undecided. Locally Gascon is gone. I am happy about that, as I thought he was terrible and know DA's who agreed he had destroyed morale in the office. Kevin de Leon looks to also be gone. Good riddance to that racist. I was at the Hochman campaign party last night. What struck me is that his supporters were from all swaths of LA, very liberal, conservative, all ethnicities and income groups. People are overwhelmingly sick and tired of the safety issues we encounter. It looks like prop 34 will pass. It will get challenged in court, but still good news. The AHF has now spent 300 million of healthcare money on 4 ballot measures that have nothing to do with healthcare, and none of their ballot measures have won. |
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