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Post by corkscrew on Nov 3, 2024 13:41:50 GMT -8
Only a fool predicts the future. Only a smug, conceited fool predicts the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
Guess I’m a smug, conceited fool:
Winston Churchill once said: “Americans will always do the right thing, after they have exhausted every other possibility.”
William Henry Seward (Abraham Lincoln’s Secretary of State) once said: “There was always just enough virtue in this republic to save it; sometimes none to spare, but still enough to meet the emergency."
This is what I am hanging my hat on, because if Americans don’t do the right thing on Tuesday and if this republic has depleted its virtue beyond the saving of the republic, then Tuesday will be indeed the very saddest day since it’s birth in 1776 — and God knows this glorious republic has seen many, many sad days.
All the polls — the highly regarded polls with track records, the scientific polls, the well funded, independent, non-partisan, dispassionate polls — have been reporting a very tight race, a coin flip, a nose finish. I say phooey! I say the pollsters are wrong because they are evaluating the electorate according to its past and recent behavior, albeit understandably and soberly. Not this year, I say. This year will be radically different. This year will be a Winston Churchill and a William Henry Seward year. So I predict:
— Kamala will win,
— Kamala will win decisively.
— Kamala will easily carry the so-called “Blue Wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
— Kamala will also carry at least two of the remaining four swing states of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, likely all four.
— Kamala may also carry at least one state not even considered a swing state, probably Iowa. I would not be shocked by Nebraska or Kansas. Yes, you heard me right, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska. Even Ohio and Indiana are not totally out of the question. The Midwest in general will surprise everyone by moving away from Trump and closer to Harris as compared to 2016 and 2020.
— Outside chance she might even carry Florida and/or Texas. Not likely, but the margin in these two states will be much, much closer than expected and will stir the national political pot.
On the last day of the Constitutional Convention, September 18, 1787, A lady asked Benjamin Franklin:
— “Well Doctor what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?“
— “A republic,” replied Franklin, ”if you can keep it.”
Tuesday will be historic! if I am wrong about my predictions, then we will have lost the republic. In which case, who cares about being wrong!
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Post by dane on Nov 3, 2024 14:25:59 GMT -8
(I read sports boards to avoid thinking about politics, alas.)
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Post by corkscrew on Nov 3, 2024 14:40:25 GMT -8
(I read sports boards to avoid thinking about politics, alas.) … And yet, when you see a thread entitled “ OT — The 2024 Election,” you click on it, read it and complain that you don’t want to think about politics. Interesting. |
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Post by mistwell on Nov 3, 2024 18:54:43 GMT -8
I hope Harris wins.
I am concerned about Pennsylvania. I think she will pull it out but it's looking very close.
I think Florida and Texas is a total pipe dream. I've heard Texas is turning blue for 15 years now. It's been wrong every time. It will be wrong this time too. Texas is not turning blue.
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Post by gilp5 on Nov 4, 2024 9:40:45 GMT -8
Not everything is national politics. What about local and state? In many ways, local elections impact our daily lives much more than national elections.
Hochman will win district attorney in Los Angeles in a landslide.
I hope Prop 34 passes. Healthcare funding should not go to pet political projects of the CEO of a healthcare company that have nothing to do with healthcare.
What about raising and continuing the sales tax in LA for homeless? We pay the highest sales tax of any county in the state (I think). The money is supposed to go to homeless projects but the situation has not gotten any better, despite billions in spending.
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Post by mistwell on Nov 4, 2024 11:23:45 GMT -8
It's the night before Helm's Deep
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Post by corkscrew on Nov 4, 2024 15:04:45 GMT -8
Not everything is national politics. What about local and state? In many ways, local elections impact our daily lives much more than national elections.Hochman will win district attorney in Los Angeles in a landslide. I hope Prop 34 passes. Healthcare funding should not go to pet political projects of the CEO of a healthcare company that have nothing to do with healthcare. What about raising and continuing the sales tax in LA for homeless? We pay the highest sales tax of any county in the state (I think). The money is supposed to go to homeless projects but the situation has not gotten any better, despite billions in spending. Absolutely, categorically and demonstrably false! That’s the myopic view. It is only true in good times of harmony, peace and prosperity, and such times are the rare exception, not the rule. It was most certainly not true in the times of the War of Independence, the Civil War, the Industrial Revolution, WWI, the Great Flu Pandemic of 2018, the Great Depression, WW2, the Cold War, the Viet Nam war, The War on Al-Qaeda and ISIS terrorism, not to mention the AIDS and COVID disasters and a ton of other national crises over the years. And it is most certainly not true today when we are as close as we have ever been to the precipice of losing the republic and our way of life. And it would not be true if we get an autocrat, now armed with full immunity granted to him by the Supreme Court for any action he chooses to take in office, and who wants to turn the military against its own people to satisfy his retribution against his political opponents and to round up millions into camps for deportation, including American Citizens. And it would not be true when this autocrat has transformed the republic into an oligarchy with his billionaire cronies and suspends the constitution so he can remain in office indefinitely. Let these things happen then see how much .25% sales tax increase or decreases matter to our “daily lives.” |
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Post by mistwell on Nov 4, 2024 17:17:37 GMT -8
The only thing you left out was a reference to Handmaids Tale, corkscrew.
SNL made fun of guys like you with their recent bit. Which I found funny.
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Post by corkscrew on Nov 4, 2024 18:24:04 GMT -8
The only thing you left out was a reference to Handmaids Tale, corkscrew. SNL made fun of guys like you with their recent bit. Which I found funny. “ Guys like you”? Is that the best you can come up with in refuting my concerns about the moment we are in? “ Guys like you” and a comedy sketch, that’s your argument? Weren’t you the one who called me a “ drama queen” when I described the post election activities in 2020 as a slow-moving coup attempt, and then later admitted in retrospect that it was indeed a coup attempt? Well, let me tell you what I think about guys like you Mistwell, and I’ll be more specific rather than illustrate it with a comedy sketch. I think you are a poster child of the Pollyanna syndrome and have an inherent need to simplify reality to fit your well-being. You are the polar opposite of the boy who cried wolf and Chicken Little — as they are overly alarmist, you are overly and naively rosy to the point of abdicating responsibility. You are the frog in boiling water. If someone had told you back in 2016 when Trump was running the first time that he would some day be a convicted felon and an adjudicated rapist who had attempted a coup to remain in power and led an insurrection on the Capitol, and that he would be nominated again by the Republican Party and openly call for the use of the military to arrest the former speaker of the house and call for the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to be put to death, you would have referred to that someone as “ guys like you” and supported your position by showing a comedy sketch. As long as events evolve slowly and incrementally, you're content being the frog in boiling water wearing rose-colored glasses, snickering at those who see danger. So yes, Mistwell, it’s guys like you who refused to see the danger in Germany in the 1930s. And I am surprised because your Jewish cultural awareness should actually make you very sensitive to the slow moving dangers of descending into authoritarianism. Victims of a specific peril normally have special antennas for that peril. Not you, you just pollyanna your way through life. |
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Post by mistwell on Nov 4, 2024 18:35:20 GMT -8
The only thing you left out was a reference to Handmaids Tale, corkscrew. SNL made fun of guys like you with their recent bit. Which I found funny. “ Guys like you”? Is that the best you can come up with in refuting my concerns about the moment we are in? “ Guys like you” and a comedy sketch, that’s your argument? I made no argument. I am just mocking your stupid basic white liberal elitist response. It's a tired schtick. You have no original thoughts on the topic and could be replicated easily with an AI bot. You're a walking stereotype frequently known as a cringelib. I vote the same as you do for President but you're just plain mockable. |
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Post by gilp5 on Nov 5, 2024 0:02:55 GMT -8
Not everything is national politics. What about local and state? In many ways, local elections impact our daily lives much more than national elections.Hochman will win district attorney in Los Angeles in a landslide. I hope Prop 34 passes. Healthcare funding should not go to pet political projects of the CEO of a healthcare company that have nothing to do with healthcare. What about raising and continuing the sales tax in LA for homeless? We pay the highest sales tax of any county in the state (I think). The money is supposed to go to homeless projects but the situation has not gotten any better, despite billions in spending. Absolutely, categorically and demonstrably false! That’s the myopic view. It is only true in good times of harmony, peace and prosperity, and such times are the rare exception, not the rule. It was most certainly not true in the times of the War of Independence, the Civil War, the Industrial Revolution, WWI, the Great Flu Pandemic of 2018, the Great Depression, WW2, the Cold War, the Viet Nam war, The War on Al-Qaeda and ISIS terrorism, not to mention the AIDS and COVID disasters and a ton of other national crises over the years. And it is most certainly not true today when we are as close as we have ever been to the precipice of losing the republic and our way of life. And it would not be true if we get an autocrat, now armed with full immunity granted to him by the Supreme Court for any action he chooses to take in office, and who wants to turn the military against its own people to satisfy his retribution against his political opponents and to round up millions into camps for deportation, including American Citizens. And it would not be true when this autocrat has transformed the republic into an oligarchy with his billionaire cronies and suspends the constitution so he can remain in office indefinitely. Let these things happen then see how much .25% sales tax increase or decreases matter to our “daily lives.” You are welcome to believe that national politics is more important to you. But it's not your place to "categorically" decide what is more important to others. I said "in many ways" local elections impact our lives more. I didn't say in every way. And each person can decide for themselves what issues are more important to them. It's pretty bold for you to decide for others. I'll give you a few things that are important to me: -A friend came to his home in the hollywood hills after a short trip and found someone sleeping in his bed who broke in through the garage and moved into his home. He called the police, which arrested the guy and promptly released him the next day. Within another week, the guy was caught breaking into another place. This friend moved out of his house and into a condo, because he does not feel safe living in a home in LA any longer. -A friend came out to his car and found a naked man sleeping in the back seat. He called the police, which arrested the guy and promptly released him the next day. Within another month, the guy was caught breaking into other cars in the neighborhood. -Many people in LA spend 50% of their income on housing in LA and live paycheck to paycheck, one sickness away from financial disaster. The cost of housing is crushingly high, and the city does very little to encourage developers to build enough housing to increase supply. -We have one of the highest sales taxes in California and the country. This is because voters approved a measure to increase sales tax to alleviate homelessness. Billions have been wasted and the number of homeless has increased, not decreased, affecting the entire city in many ways daily. This high sales tax is on top of the high housing costs and high insurance rates. -In a recent LA Times poll, "Nearly three-quarters of renters and those under 35 have given consideration to moving out of Los Angeles . . . Overall, the poll found that 60% of Angelenos have debated leaving the city due to the rising cost of housing, with 35% saying they’ve given “serious consideration” to doing so." This extreme level of dissatisfaction is how cities decline and crumble, which we can all see happening in LA. I would say more than half of my friends from 10 years ago do not live here any longer. These are things that affect me and many of us on a daily basis. So, according to you I cannot care more about them than who is in charge in Washington DC? You come across as someone entitled with plenty of money to live comfortably who moved to LA and purchased housing when it was affordable and are not impacted by many of the things I described above. |
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Post by mistwell on Nov 5, 2024 7:09:46 GMT -8
I agree with you that local politics ultimately impact your life more than national politics. National politics are about big issues, but local politics are more likely to come up in your life. Abortion for example is a big issue. It's important. But the odds are you will not personally encounter abortion in your life in the next four years. You will however encounter road closures, taxes, regulations, crime, meaningful changes at places you shop and otherwise attend, and a variety of other issues that are on the local ballot today. In that sense, the local politics will impact your life more directly and frequently than the national ones.
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Post by clipzfan611 on Nov 5, 2024 7:38:58 GMT -8
You are welcome to believe that national politics is more important to you. But it's not your place to "categorically" decide what is more important to others. I said "in many ways" local elections impact our lives more. I didn't say in every way. And each person can decide for themselves what issues are more important to them. It's pretty bold for you to decide for others. I'll give you a few things that are important to me: -A friend came to his home in the hollywood hills after a short trip and found someone sleeping in his bed who broke in through the garage and moved into his home. He called the police, which arrested the guy and promptly released him the next day. Within another week, the guy was caught breaking into another place. This friend moved out of his house and into a condo, because he does not feel safe living in a home in LA any longer. -A friend came out to his car and found a naked man sleeping in the back seat. He called the police, which arrested the guy and promptly released him the next day. Within another month, the guy was caught breaking into other cars in the neighborhood. -Many people in LA spend 50% of their income on housing in LA and live paycheck to paycheck, one sickness away from financial disaster. The cost of housing is crushingly high, and the city does very little to encourage developers to build enough housing to increase supply. -We have one of the highest sales taxes in California and the country. This is because voters approved a measure to increase sales tax to alleviate homelessness. Billions have been wasted and the number of homeless has increased, not decreased, affecting the entire city in many ways daily. This high sales tax is on top of the high housing costs and high insurance rates. -In a recent LA Times poll, "Nearly three-quarters of renters and those under 35 have given consideration to moving out of Los Angeles . . . Overall, the poll found that 60% of Angelenos have debated leaving the city due to the rising cost of housing, with 35% saying they’ve given “serious consideration” to doing so." This extreme level of dissatisfaction is how cities decline and crumble, which we can all see happening in LA. I would say more than half of my friends from 10 years ago do not live here any longer. These are things that affect me and many of us on a daily basis. So, according to you I cannot care more about them than who is in charge in Washington DC? You come across as someone entitled with plenty of money to live comfortably who moved to LA and purchased housing when it was affordable and are not impacted by many of the things I described above.
Agree with your general point, he's just a delusional radical idiot and probably doesnt live in LA or ever go outside. Those stories are rampant across Angelenos whether you have money or not (safety is an issue). And theres largely only been one party in charge here practically forever and they keep moving further and further left into lunacy. You would think people would start voting better but most people are stupid.
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Post by mistwell on Nov 5, 2024 11:24:32 GMT -8
For the election itself, Nate Silver ran 80,000 simulations last night. The result was Harris won in 40,012, and Trump won (or tied, with tie going to Trump due to House composition) in 39,988 of them. Apparently a coin toss does not have exactly 50-50 odds and these odds based on this simulation are even closer to 50-50 than a coin toss. In his 9 elections he's covered, no simulation has ever come this close to 50-50 odds.
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Post by gilp5 on Nov 5, 2024 11:35:25 GMT -8
For the election itself, Nate Silver ran 80,000 simulations last night. The result was Harris won in 40,012, and Trump won (or tied, with tie going to Trump due to House composition) in 39,988 of them. Apparently a coin toss does not have exactly 50-50 odds and these odds based on this simulation are even closer to 50-50 than a coin toss. In his 9 elections he's covered, no simulation has ever come this close to 50-50 odds. Silver got badly burned in 2016. I'm curious if he adjusted his methodology to cover himself, but at the same time does not personally believe it is that close. |
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