|
|
Post by trapp76 on Feb 15, 2019 9:17:05 GMT -8
This year is definitely the better year to have our pick, it will likely be a much higher pick this year and even just a small chance at Zion would be better than zero. We'd be around the 15th pick this year in all likelihood if we missed the playoffs, with a near zero percent chance of getting Zion (the simulator says around Nickeil Alexander-Walker, a college player projected to be similar to Arron Afflalo). I'd rather make the playoffs and lose that pick and get around the 24th pick next year in the better lottery. 2020 apparently has a very deep international class of players by the way and is claimed to be shaping up to be the best class since 2014 in terms of depth. Meanwhile, I am seeing analysts say the 2019 draft, beyond the top 4 picks, is full of a lot of crap shoots and older players who in other years would have been taken in the second round. 14th would be worst we could pick if we missed the playoffs, but it could be higher. I would rather have the 14th pick this year and a small chance at Zion than the 24th pick next year and zero chance at Zion, so agree to disagree I guess.    Next year's draft may be stronger, but it's not gonna be 10 spots in the draft stronger. I would like to add another good young player on a cheap salary under team control for 4 years to our roster when we go after big free agents this summer, or have the pick in our war chest to sweeten a trade deal this off-season for AD. We have already shown we can build a competitive team this season, so that mission is already accomplished whether we end up making the playoffs or not. |
|
|
|
Post by mistwell on Feb 15, 2019 9:31:46 GMT -8
I'm just gonna say it - I don't even think Zion will be a great player. I think it's possible he could even end up a bust or injury prone at his weight. Hes a bigger risk than I think people are considering. Maybe he will be great....but I think it's reasonable to be concerned about how he will work in the NBA.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2019 10:44:06 GMT -8
I'm just gonna say it - I don't even think Zion will be a great player. I think it's possible he could even end up a bust or injury prone at his weight. Hes a bigger risk than I think people are considering. Maybe he will be great....but I think it's reasonable to be concerned about how he will work in the NBA. Best case scenario: Larry Johnson. Worst case scenario: Anthony Bennett. You need length and a great 3 pointer to be a star. Zion is undersized at the 4 and the 3. |
|
|
|
Post by trapp76 on Feb 15, 2019 13:21:30 GMT -8
I'm just gonna say it - I don't even think Zion will be a great player. I think it's possible he could even end up a bust or injury prone at his weight. Hes a bigger risk than I think people are considering. Maybe he will be great....but I think it's reasonable to be concerned about how he will work in the NBA. Best case scenario: Larry Johnson. Worst case scenario: Anthony Bennett. You need length and a great 3 pointer to be a star. Zion is undersized at the 4 and the 3. Charles Barkley is the comparison I hear the most. |
|
|
|
Post by gilp5 on Feb 15, 2019 13:24:51 GMT -8
We'd be around the 15th pick this year in all likelihood if we missed the playoffs, with a near zero percent chance of getting Zion (the simulator says around Nickeil Alexander-Walker, a college player projected to be similar to Arron Afflalo). I'd rather make the playoffs and lose that pick and get around the 24th pick next year in the better lottery. 2020 apparently has a very deep international class of players by the way and is claimed to be shaping up to be the best class since 2014 in terms of depth. Meanwhile, I am seeing analysts say the 2019 draft, beyond the top 4 picks, is full of a lot of crap shoots and older players who in other years would have been taken in the second round. 14th would be worst we could pick if we missed the playoffs, but it could be higher. I would rather have the 14th pick this year and a small chance at Zion than the 24th pick next year and zero chance at Zion, so agree to disagree I guess. Next year's draft may be stronger, but it's not gonna be 10 spots in the draft stronger. I would like to add another good young player on a cheap salary under team control for 4 years to our roster when we go after big free agents this summer, or have the pick in our war chest to sweeten a trade deal this off-season for AD. We have already shown we can build a competitive team this season, so that mission is already accomplished whether we end up making the playoffs or not. We are two games above sacramento (with tie breaker) and we are only two games behind the 5th seed and 3 games behind the 4th seed, with an easier schedule than all of these teams. No way should this team try to tank. |
|
|
|
Post by trapp76 on Feb 15, 2019 14:21:10 GMT -8
14th would be worst we could pick if we missed the playoffs, but it could be higher. I would rather have the 14th pick this year and a small chance at Zion than the 24th pick next year and zero chance at Zion, so agree to disagree I guess. Next year's draft may be stronger, but it's not gonna be 10 spots in the draft stronger. I would like to add another good young player on a cheap salary under team control for 4 years to our roster when we go after big free agents this summer, or have the pick in our war chest to sweeten a trade deal this off-season for AD. We have already shown we can build a competitive team this season, so that mission is already accomplished whether we end up making the playoffs or not. We are two games above sacramento (with tie breaker) and we are only two games behind the 5th seed and 3 games behind the 4th seed, with an easier schedule than all of these teams. No way should this team try to tank. They won't try to tank. |
|
|
|
Post by mistwell on Feb 15, 2019 14:30:01 GMT -8
Yeah I don't recall Trapp ever advocating for us to throw games. He's just saying (from what I can tell) that he'd prefer if we kept our pick this year by missing the playoffs, and perhaps that we will probably miss the playoffs naturally.
|
|
|
|
Post by clipps on Feb 15, 2019 15:52:01 GMT -8
You all realize Zion is still just 18 and might not even be done with growing? Even if he doesn’t grow anymore, he’s only gonna get stronger and faster like LeBron in his first few seasons in the NBA. i Think some of you are underrating Zion’s handles and playmaking, which is why he gets compared to LeBron.
|
|
|
|
Post by mistwell on Feb 15, 2019 17:02:13 GMT -8
We'll see. I don't think he will ever be as good as Lebron.
|
|
|
|
Post by clipps on Feb 15, 2019 18:27:36 GMT -8
We'll see. I don't think he will ever be as good as Lebron. Yup, that’s a pretty tall order. |
|
|
|
Post by mistwell on Feb 18, 2019 14:54:36 GMT -8
|
|
|
|
Post by gilp5 on Feb 18, 2019 16:29:26 GMT -8
I think guessing the number of wins is the wrong way to go. We need to do better than the teams below us. Looking at strength of schedule compared to those teams is a better metric.
|
|
|
|
Post by gilp5 on Feb 19, 2019 18:43:17 GMT -8
|
|
|
|
Post by mistwell on Feb 19, 2019 21:18:43 GMT -8
I don't know if 43 wins makes it but I do think it's going the opposite direction in terms of wins to make the playoffs this year than people originally thought. As more teams are close to making the playoffs, you actually get a flatter curve at that bubble point to teams making it, since they're beating each other. There just are not as many teams tanking (possibly from the anti-tanking rules enacted this year) so the intense competition leads to what appears to be a contradictory result - few wins to make it.
By the way, if you click ELO instead of CARMELO at the top, you get the more "normal" rating from them. CARMELO is less proven than ELO (though over time it may prove to be the more reliable measurement), and focuses more on star players than ELO does. It actually dings teams like the Clippers who have no stars.
|
|
|
|
Post by clipps on Feb 19, 2019 21:28:41 GMT -8
Clippers have a 1% shot at making the Finals when you change the settings to ELO... So you say there’s a chance.
|
|
