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Post by clipanswerman on Jan 31, 2024 7:58:56 GMT -8
Before the cavs game, I asked myself, what the difference in the game would be if Donovan Mitchell was out vs. if Paul George was out. The difference is significant.
Which got me thinking again about how much we should pay Paul George this offseason. Which got me looking at the free agents available this offseason. Here are some names: DeRozan, Malik Monk, Miles Bridges, Kelly Obre and some with Player Options: D-Russell.
The cap will be $141 this offseason. Assuming PG opts out, we'd be $18m under the cap (I think and that's without Harden signed). We could probably get Monk or Bridges, certainly Oubre for that - and how much worse would be? A bit, but not much. but if we can't do that [because of rules I'm not aware of such as, do we have Harden's Bird Rights (?) then we really have to keep him. And we'll pay him whatever the market value is. ] He's been great - with Harden. Without Harden, totally different story. And I suspect Monk and Oubre would be better too.
Bottom line of course - Paul George is an asset, but he's overrated. His value is tied to Harden in my book.
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Post by gilp5 on Jan 31, 2024 10:31:47 GMT -8
Before the cavs game, I asked myself, what the difference in the game would be if Donovan Mitchell was out vs. if Paul George was out. The difference is significant. Which got me thinking again about how much we should pay Paul George this offseason. Which got me looking at the free agents available this offseason. Here are some names: DeRozan, Malik Monk, Miles Bridges, Kelly Obre and some with Player Options: D-Russell. The cap will be $141 this offseason. Assuming PG opts out, we'd be $18m under the cap (I think and that's without Harden signed). We could probably get Monk or Bridges, certainly Oubre for that - and how much worse would be? A bit, but not much. but if we can't do that [because of rules I'm not aware of such as, do we have Harden's Bird Rights (?) then we really have to keep him. And we'll pay him whatever the market value is. ] He's been great - with Harden. Without Harden, totally different story. And I suspect Monk and Oubre would be better too. Bottom line of course - Paul George is an asset, but he's overrated. His value is tied to Harden in my book. We've had a little side debate on Paul George v Mitchell. Corkscrew said PG is a superior defender and cited his all-defense awards from 2019(!) and prior - all before he was on the Clippers. Of course actual metrics say otherwise. Mistwell once said he would trade PG for Mitchell, but now he seems to be backtracking on that, or at least wants to be argumentative about it. My point in all of this is that PG is asking for a contract that could easily turn into an albatross. Something like Philly did with Tobias. And if PG regresses to his pre-Harden self, the Clippers will be stuck for 3 years. I can imagine the FO is aware of this as well, or else a deal would have been done by now.
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Post by corkscrew on Jan 31, 2024 12:07:12 GMT -8
Before the cavs game, I asked myself, what the difference in the game would be if Donovan Mitchell was out vs. if Paul George was out. The difference is significant. Which got me thinking again about how much we should pay Paul George this offseason. Which got me looking at the free agents available this offseason. Here are some names: DeRozan, Malik Monk, Miles Bridges, Kelly Obre and some with Player Options: D-Russell. The cap will be $141 this offseason. Assuming PG opts out, we'd be $18m under the cap (I think and that's without Harden signed). We could probably get Monk or Bridges, certainly Oubre for that - and how much worse would be? A bit, but not much. but if we can't do that [because of rules I'm not aware of such as, do we have Harden's Bird Rights (?) then we really have to keep him. And we'll pay him whatever the market value is. ] He's been great - with Harden. Without Harden, totally different story. And I suspect Monk and Oubre would be better too. Bottom line of course - Paul George is an asset, but he's overrated. His value is tied to Harden in my book. We've had a little side debate on Paul George v Mitchell. Corkscrew said PG is a superior defender and cited his all-defense awards from 2019(!) and prior - all before he was on the Clippers. Of course actual metrics say otherwise. Mistwell once said he would trade PG for Mitchell, but now he seems to be backtracking on that, or at least wants to be argumentative about it. My point in all of this is that PG is asking for a contract that could easily turn into an albatross. Something like Philly did with Tobias. And if PG regresses to his pre-Harden self, the Clippers will be stuck for 3 years. I can imagine the FO is aware of this as well, or else a deal would have been done by now. This statement is at the very core of the disagreement. Some look at metrics to evaluate players, I use the eye and brain test. The metrics method is an objective exercise that causes people to say things like “ awards before 2019” without examining what was different after 2019, attributing the difference to age, I suppose, disregarding the construction of the team and the role the player is asked to play. The eye and brain test looks at the way a player plays and how he affects the game on the court, and that is a subjective exercise. As an example of what I mean, if you read the Law Murray article I posted a couple of days ago, he describes things that PG and Kawhi and the team as a whole did defensively that affected the game. But these things he describes are not necessarily measured by metrics; they were not steals or blocks or deflections, so they cannot be measured with objective means, and they will not show up in “ defensive ratings.”. But the subjective observation will notice them and evaluate them on their own merit without providing data to support the appreciation. The pre-Harden PG was not a worst player than the post-Harden PG. He was just put into a different role, so his metrics changed: Fewer turnovers, more open shots, etc. If you go only by metrics, then yes, pre-Harden PG would be a “ regression”, as you say. The eye and brain test says otherwise, it says same player in different circumstances. And debating objectivity vs. subjectivity is a fool’s errand, it’s like two ships passing in the night never noticing each other, that’s why I will not engage in it.
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Post by hitnrun24 on Jan 31, 2024 12:24:34 GMT -8
Like Cam said if you took Michell off the Cavs vs Paul George off the Clippers, it's no question who it's a bigger loss for. I'll even concede if you put Paul George on the Cavs in Mitchell's place, they are worse. I still don't think Mitchell's defense is elite, he's surrounded by some pretty good defenders on that team. He was in Utah too and the DPOY had a lot of issues with him on that end. But he's dynamic offensively no question.
I will say regarding regression for George, tall guys who can shoot are the last player type to drop off with age. And we can't ignore that we already see how the fit is with him on this team. Mitchell we don't know. It also makes us smaller, which we've seen has hurt us. Having a 6'9 guard is very valuable.
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Post by mistwell on Jan 31, 2024 15:43:32 GMT -8
Like Cam said if you took Michell off the Cavs vs Paul George off the Clippers, it's no question who it's a bigger loss for. I'll even concede if you put Paul George on the Cavs in Mitchell's place, they are worse. I still don't think Mitchell's defense is elite, he's surrounded by some pretty good defenders on that team. He was in Utah too and the DPOY had a lot of issues with him on that end. But he's dynamic offensively no question. I will say regarding regression for George, tall guys who can shoot are the last player type to drop off with age. And we can't ignore that we already see how the fit is with him on this team. Mitchell we don't know. It also makes us smaller, which we've seen has hurt us. Having a 6'9 guard is very valuable. The "we know PG fits well, we don't know Mitchell fits well" is my primary argument on this one. Both are basically #2 offensive options, they're really ranked close to each other, but I definitely think the fit is better with PG. It's not meaningless all our stars are from Southern California and here because they want to be here and like the guys they're playing with. And now that Harden has adjusted, the flow is great with this team. I would not want to muck that up with Mitchell, who also has some injury issues and I don't think is as good a fit here. Now if Harden is also gone next year (and boy do I hope he's not) then we are taking a major hit. I do not want to see PG as the primary ball handler anymore. This is the better role for him. I wouldn't want to see Mitchell as the primary ball handler either.
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Post by v-ice on Feb 8, 2024 22:12:12 GMT -8
There are “growing whispers” of Paul George’s own intrigue of potentially returning to the Pacers this offseason, per @jakelfischer
Indiana would only be able to acquire George via sign-and-trade after trading for Pascal Siakam.
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Post by gilp5 on Feb 8, 2024 23:20:21 GMT -8
There are “growing whispers” of Paul George’s own intrigue of potentially returning to the Pacers this offseason, per @jakelfischer Indiana would only be able to acquire George via sign-and-trade after trading for Pascal Siakam. PG's agent is spreading rumors that other teams are interested in him at a max deal. I highly doubt this is the case. His real value is no more than $30m/year.
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Post by jglanton on Feb 8, 2024 23:37:44 GMT -8
PG13 is almost identical in performance to Mikal Bridges who makes $22M
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Post by gilp5 on Feb 8, 2024 23:51:25 GMT -8
PG13 is almost identical in performance to Mikal Bridges who makes $22M Yes. 100% agree. This is the true market value of PG. Or maybe slightly higher (I put it at 100m/3 years).
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Post by mistwell on Feb 9, 2024 10:16:33 GMT -8
There are “growing whispers” of Paul George’s own intrigue of potentially returning to the Pacers this offseason, per @jakelfischer Indiana would only be able to acquire George via sign-and-trade after trading for Pascal Siakam. PG's agent is spreading rumors that other teams are interested in him at a max deal. I highly doubt this is the case. His real value is no more than $30m/year. Been trying to say you're wrong on what he could get elsewhere. But you're a hater in denial. As for this being from his agent, could be.
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Post by gilp5 on Feb 9, 2024 10:18:45 GMT -8
PG's agent is spreading rumors that other teams are interested in him at a max deal. I highly doubt this is the case. His real value is no more than $30m/year. Been trying to say you're wrong on what he could get elsewhere. But you're a hater in denial. As for this being from his agent, could be. Huh?? How is valuing him at $30m being a hater?
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Post by jglanton on Feb 9, 2024 10:53:35 GMT -8
PG13 is almost identical in performance to Mikal Bridges who makes $22M PG13 is below Pascal Siakam in performance. Pascal makes $37M. So I think that the rational value for him would be $32M.
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Post by mistwell on Feb 9, 2024 10:53:37 GMT -8
Been trying to say you're wrong on what he could get elsewhere. But you're a hater in denial. As for this being from his agent, could be. Huh?? How is valuing him at $30m being a hater? Naw, you valuing him at $30M is not what makes you a hater. It's you being a hater that makes it so difficult to discuss the fact other teams can and would offer him more than $30M because his market value is higher than that.
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Post by gilp5 on Feb 9, 2024 11:05:07 GMT -8
PG13 is almost identical in performance to Mikal Bridges who makes $22M PG13 is below Pascal Siakam in performance. Pascal makes $37M. So I think that the rational value for him would be $32M. Be careful, Mistwell thinks you are a hater now.
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Post by mistwell on Feb 9, 2024 11:35:17 GMT -8
PG13 is below Pascal Siakam in performance. Pascal makes $37M. So I think that the rational value for him would be $32M. Be careful, Mistwell thinks you are a hater now. No, he's not a hater. He'd discuss the matter with me rationally because he doesn't have a deep seated bias behind his opinion.
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